There's something inherently fun about guessing games. Usually our guesses are based on nothing more than a whim, but the satisfaction of having gotten something exactly right, through no real skill of our own? Priceless. (Of course, we like to think of ourselves as logical people who use the scientific method and common sense to generate our conjectures).
Every year we spend some time coming up with our guesses on what will show up on the AP Exam, based on a mix of research, gut instinct, and just a bit of whim. Particularly, we studied the released free response questions from 2019, 2021, 2022, and 2023 which are the exams written since the release of the new CED. (The 2020 Exam was an at-home exam, and like many things from that year, we'll erase it from our memory.) While we know the College Board will always throw us a few curve balls, we think we'll see some of our fan favorite items return to the AP Calc Exam this year (rate-in, rate-out question, I'm talking about you!)
If you want to use this as an in-class activity, download the blank AP Exam Prediction template.
Downloads:
Calc Medic AP Calculus Exam Predictions Blank
**DISCLAIMER: We have absolutely no insider information for any of these predictions. Proceed with caution.**
To see the released FRQs from previous years, use our FRQ Search Tool. For more information about tackling some of these FRQs, check out our videos on the most commonly seen free response questions and the verbs used on the AP Calc Exam (and what they mean)!
Students, if you are interested in doing some last-minute review for the AP Calc Exam, consider using the Calc Medic Review Course. Sign up for immediate access to the entire course, where you can pick and choose to review the topics you need the most help with.
How did we come up with these predictions?
Here are a few data points we used to generate our guesses for the 2024 AP Calculus Exam. But as we said before, there's no real way of knowing!
Rate-in/rate-out questions haven't been on the exam for several years now (last time was 2019), so we think one is due! I have a strong affinity toward a rate-in, rate-out question as question #1, so I will probably keep predicting this until the end of time.
Area/volume questions became less popular for a while, then made a re-appearance in 2021 and 2022. Since we didn't have one last year, I think we'll see one this year.
The last 3 years featured a differential equation question where students had to draw in a solution curve. We think it's unlikely this exact prompt will appear a 4th time.
Since the release of the new CED, we've seen a L'hopital's question every single year. Other items with a 4-year streak are the MVT, average value, absolute max/min and related rates(!)
We haven't seen a tabular particle motion since 2019. The last 3 exams have featured analytical forms of velocity functions. We think we're due for a table of velocity values!
The graphical analysis question is always presented as either the graph of f', asking questions about f, or the graph of f, asking questions about the accumulation function with f as its integrand. It's been the former for the past two years, so we think the latter is more likely to appear this year.
Have your own predictions? Share them with us in the comments!
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