Predictions for the 2025 AP Calculus Exam

Sarah Stecher
May 2
3 min read

There's something inherently fun about guessing games. Usually our guesses are based on nothing more than a whim, but the satisfaction of having gotten something exactly right, through no real skill of our own? Priceless. (Of course, we like to think of ourselves as logical people who use the scientific method and common sense to generate our conjectures).

Every year we spend some time coming up with our guesses on what will show up on the AP Exam, based on a mix of research, gut instinct, and just a bit of whim. Particularly, we studied the released free response questions from 2019, 2021, 2022, 2023, and 2024 which are the exams written since the release of the new CED. (The 2020 Exam was an at-home exam, and like many things from that year, we'll erase it from our memory.) While we know the College Board will always throw us a few curve balls, we've seen some very consistent patterns over the last few years (like a contextual differential equation question and the loss of the #classic rate-in, rate-out question, RIP).

This year, we're sharing predictions for the AB and BC exams. Generally questions 1, 3, and 4 are shared questions between both exams, and questions 2, 5, and 6 are unique to each exam.

If you want to use this as an in-class activity, download the blank AP Exam Prediction template.

Downloads:

Math Medic AP Calculus Exam Predictions Blank

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Math Medic AP Calculus Exam Predictions Completed

AB | BC

**DISCLAIMER: We have absolutely no insider information for any of these predictions. Proceed with caution.**

How did we come up with these predictions?

Here are a few data points we used to generate our guesses for the 2025 AP Calculus Exam. But as we said before, there's no real way of knowing!

AB

Rate-in/rate-out questions haven't been on the exam for several years now (last time was 2019), so even though it's our favorite question, we took it off our prediction list this year (still sad about it). Instead, we think we'll see a tabular rate of change question as FRQ 1.
The particle motion question has been analytical (velocity given as an equation) for several years now. We'll assume this pattern holds for 2025.
Of the last 5 exams (not including 2020), 4 out of the 5 differential equation questions have been contextual. They have also featured sketching a solution curve on a slope field, but with the digital exam this year, we gave that part the boot!
Last year students were given the graph of a function f and were asked to analyze the accumulation function g which has f as its integrand (which we predicted!). This year, we think students will be given the graph of f' and asked to justify the behavior of f. These two forms of the graph analysis question tend to alternate from year to year.
We think the absence of an absolute extrema question on last year's exam was a misstep, so we think this is coming back on the graph of f' question.
We're still holding strong to the "function mash-up" question. There are SO many things they can ask from this stem, so it's a nice catch-all question to cover content not included elsewhere (u-sub, theorems, derivative rules, etc.)
It's a bit risky to expect another area/volume question, but we think this is more likely than an implicit differentiation question, a skill which could already be assessed on the differential equation question (calculating a second derivative).

BC

FRQ 2 has consistently been about parametric/vector particle motion in recent years. These questions are popular for a reason, weaving together some of the most important calculus concepts.
Polar equations have been absent from the BC Exam for the past four years, but we think they'll make a comeback this year! We can only go so many years without a polar question, right?
Nothing is more predictable on the BC Exam than the infamous series FRQ. These questions are notorious for being less than straightforward, rewarding students who persevere through uncertainty! Don't forget about our series convergence flowchart to help students keep the various tests straight!

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